Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions has always been the cornerstone of supervisory authorities. In this work, we employ a series of modeling techniques to predict bank insolvencies on a sample of US-based financial institutions. Our empirical results indicate that the method of Random Forests (RF) has a superior out-of-sample and out-of-time predictive performance, with Neural Networks also performing almost equally well as RF in out-of-time samples. These conclusions are drawn not only by comparison with broadly used bank failure models, such as Logistic, but also by comparison with other advanced machine learning techniques. Furthermore, our results illustrate that in the CAMELS evaluation framework, metrics related to earnings and capital constitute the factors with higher marginal contribution to the prediction of bank failures. Finally, we assess the generalization of our model by providing a case study to a sample of major European banks.     

Managers’ exploration activities and individual unlearning: the mediating role of learning orientation and reflection

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to investigate the effects of managers’ exploration activities on learning orientation, reflection, and unlearning of team members. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 115 employees in 23 teams from a Japanese pharmaceutical company. The results of multi-level analyses suggest that managers’ exploration activities had a direct influence on team members’ learning orientations, which subsequently had a positive influence on their unlearning, with and without the mediation of reflection. These findings suggest that a subordinate’s unlearning is driven by managers’ activities through motivational and cognitive processes. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

An analysis of environmental sustainability in small & medium‐sized enterprises: Patterns and trends

One of the greatest challenges facing the world today is climate change. The need to consistently advance with environmentally sustainable practices in today's businesses is crucial, and businesses are demanded to be more environmentally sustainable every day. This study conducts an analysis of the literature on small and medium‐sized enterprises' (SMEs) environmental sustainability by carefully examining 122 studies from 58 journals published from 2013 to 2019. We investigate the trends in drivers and barriers of sustainability adoption to inform both SMEs managers and policymakers. Our results also classify the reviewed studies on the basis of their methodologies and show the distribution of studies across industry sectors and locations in order to set directions for future research on sustainability practices of SMEs.     

大国产业竞争视阙下美欧推动的国际产业补贴新规则——中国的立场与对策

在经济全球化和先进技术占主导地位的时代,大国竞争的本质在于争夺产业链的控制权,提高在产业链中的地位。为阻止中国在产业链的升级,欧美通过对外签订经贸协定,推动国有企业规则和更新补贴规则,同时在WTO框架下谋求针对中国补贴模式修改WTO补贴规则,将补贴范围从财政补贴延伸至扭曲市场的贷款,以反补贴、竞争政策、国有企业规则等多项规则管制产业补贴。我国必须通过分类改革确定国有企业在产业竞争中的作用和地位,对充分竞争行业的商业类国有企业重新塑造"商业性"或"中性"身份,避免对我国国有企业特殊反补贴规则的适用;确立我国接受产业补贴规则的底线思维,通过博弈明确产业补贴负面清单,积极回应欧美国家关于补贴透明度要求,为相关谈判奠定良好基础。     

Chinese multinationals on the New Silk Route: Managing political risk by branding the nation

Though Chinese multinational enterprises (CMNEs) have brought investment and opportunities to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, there has been scepticism regarding the content and context of their investment. On the one hand, infrastructural development contributes to GDP formation and enhances the efficiency of productive inputs where international trade enhances technology and export development, which jointly provides a path to economic growth. On the other hand, critical issues such as debt sustainability and national sovereignty among countries that have gone through the decolonization process mean that CMNEs need to grasp the implication of political risk when investing. This article focuses on South and Southeast Asia, where China has historical socio‐economic relationship, and proposes a nation branding model combining tradition and modernity which can be the way forward for CMNEs to mitigate political risk in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment. Nation branding of BRI could be seen as a continuity of China's unfinished business in globalization that has preceded the modern polity; nevertheless, there is a need to communicate a coherent and authentic message that reflects the reality of business operations.     

Local integration and co‐evolution of internationalizing Chinese firms

This study investigates the integration of internationalizing Chinese firms into local host markets. We explore the market‐driven investment of a new wave of Chinese private and local state‐owned firms in Australia since 2012, which has replaced the initial large‐scale investment in resources by central state‐owned enterprises. Using an in‐depth analysis of nine Chinese firms operating in various sectors of the Australian market, we argue that market integration, adaptation, and bilateral institution‐building through co‐evolution and empowerment of local subsidiaries of Chinese multinational enterprises results in entrepreneurial autonomy and characterizes a new generation of Chinese investors. We propose that Chinese multinational subsidiaries have transferred domestic practices to the Australian market and have reconfigured domestic and host market resources to gain a competitive advantage in their original investment industry and new industries. Our study advances middle‐range theory building and provides a practical understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese investors, their potential to disrupt local markets, and their responsiveness to market‐oriented institutional guidance. The results of this study suggest that the bilateral institution‐building and resource reconfiguration capabilities of Chinese enterprises can be transferred to other developed and developing markets, including Belt and Road Initiative countries.     

创业型中小企业财务管理的创新与应用研究

在国民经济高速发展的推动下,我国经济市场环境越来越好,企业的发展空间逐渐扩大。因此,诞生了很多创业型企业,在我国的经济活动中扮演着十分重要的角色。但是创业型企业由于经营经验少、管理制度缺失以及组织结构不完整等,在财务管理方面存在一些问题亟待解决。基于此,论文从创业型中小企业入手,对财务管理的问题、创新及应用策略进行了研究,以供参考。     

基于大数据时代下企业推进财务信息化的研究

目前,计算机技术及信息统计技术已经得到了广泛的应用,并且大数据统计分析技术逐渐完善,也广泛应用在各行各业当中。对于财务管理工作来说,信息化技术以及大数据技术的应用,为预算编制、成本控制提供了十分丰富的数据资源,也有效减少了信息统计分析的工作量,数据分析的准确性也得到了有效的提升。大数据技术的应用,进一步推进了财务精细化管理的应用与发展。